Study Guide 2: Building a Theory of Change and Using It for Measurement

What a theory of change is

The handouts define a theory of change as the path from needs to activities to impact. It is presented as a systematic assessment of what needs to happen for a desired outcome to occur, including the organisation’s hypothesis about how and why change happens and the role its work can play in contributing to progress.

The materials also emphasise that a theory of change is both causal and empirical. This means it is not just a diagram of steps; it is an explanation of why one step is expected to lead to the next, informed by evidence and reasoning.

Why a theory of change is useful

• It establishes common principles and vocabulary.
• It makes implicit assumptions explicit.
• It helps identify resources and judge whether they are adequate.
• It supports more realistic plans of action.
• It encourages healthy scepticism about whether intended change will actually occur.

The handouts further explain that it provides a basis for evaluation by helping determine what should be measured, what evidence is needed, and how stronger claims about attribution can be supported.

Theory of change versus logic model

The materials note that the two are often used interchangeably, but they also distinguish them:

• A logic model is usually a practical roadmap linking program activities and strategies to outcomes and desired results.
• A theory of change takes a wider view of desired change and probes the assumptions behind each step in what may be a long and complex process.

In short, a logic model must be sequential, logical, and reasonable, while a theory of change must also explain why activities are expected to produce outcomes.

Main building blocks

The handouts unpack program structure into inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and long-term impacts.

• Inputs: human, physical, and fiscal resources needed to conduct the program.
• Activities: what is done with the resources to address the problem.
• Outputs: evidence of service delivery once activities are completed or underway.
• Outcomes: expected changes over time.
• Long-term impacts: broader changes expected over a longer horizon.

Backward mapping

A major practical point in the handouts is that theory of change construction is not simply filled in from left to right. Instead, it begins with intended results and works backward. This backward mapping approach starts with the outcomes and impacts sought, then identifies the preceding conditions, outputs, activities, and inputs required.

The reason for beginning with outcomes is that intended results provide the basis for monitoring progress and impacts, and therefore for deciding what should be measured.

Assumptions and causality

The handouts stress the importance of making assumptions visible. A theory of change should state why each link in the chain is expected to hold. This includes asking whether assumptions linking activities and outputs are correct and whether current conditions in the context still justify the chosen approach.

The materials also describe alternative visualisation through an outcomes chain, where activities are linked to outcomes in order and with attention to causality between causes and effects.

Levels and nesting

Theory of change can be developed at different levels, including organisation, program, and project. These can be nested, meaning lower-level theories can sit within and align with higher-level ones.

Use in impact management and evaluation

The handouts connect theory of change directly to impact management. Example questions include whether current outputs are likely to lead to planned outcomes, whether the context has changed, and whether assumptions remain valid. They also link theory of change to process and outcome evaluation by prompting evaluators to identify suitable measures and data sources for activities, participation, and outcomes across time horizons.

Key takeaway

A theory of change is more than a flowchart. It is an explicit causal account of how change is expected to happen, why each step should lead to the next, what assumptions must hold, and what evidence should be collected to assess progress and impact.

Primary source: [W1_3_Groundwork_Handouts_for_Theory_of_Change_82466778](material:111).